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Scottish Mortgage: The Biggest And The Best?

<p>Not only is Scottish Mortgage currently the biggest UK-listed investment trust with a market cap of over £10 billion&comma; but it&&num;8217&semi;s also been one of the best performers over the last few decades&period; <&excl;--more--><&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Scottish Mortgage is also one of the old guard of the investment trust sector&comma; having been launched in 1909 as Straits Mortgage and Trust Company&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Originally&comma; it provided loans to Malaysian rubber plantations&period; Now its top holdings are Amazon&comma; Tesla&comma; Tencent&comma; and Alibaba&comma; so you could say its Asian roots have come full circle&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>It was renamed Scottish Mortgage and Trust Company in 1913 which was then shortened to just Scottish Mortgage in 2003&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<h2>The Baillie Bunch<&sol;h2>&NewLine;<p>From launch&comma; Scottish Mortgage has been run by Baillie Gifford&comma; an investment partnership based in Edinburgh with offices in 10 other locations including Buenos Aires&comma; New York&comma; and Shanghai&period; Around 60&percnt; of its customers are based outside of the UK&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Although Baillie Gifford has made quite a name for itself in the world of investment trusts&comma; it&&num;8217&semi;s just a small part of its business&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>As of March 2020&comma; Baillie Gifford managed £198 billion in assets&comma; and it had 43 partners and around 1&comma;300 staff&period; Only around 15&percnt; of its business relates to retail investors&comma; with the rest of its clients being institutions&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Baillie Gifford runs 11 investment trusts that collectively have some £18 billion in assets&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Monks is the second biggest with £2&period;2 billion but the rest all have assets of less than £1 billion&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Five of its trusts have Baillie Gifford in the name and it also runs Edinburgh Worldwide&comma; <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;itinvestor&period;co&period;uk&sol;2019&sol;03&sol;baillie-gifford-chases-unicorns-with-schiehallion&sol;">Schiehallion<&sol;a>&comma; Scottish American&comma; and Pacific Horizon&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Baillie Gifford is clearly very proud of its Scottish heritage&period; It also prizes its long-term growth-orientated approach with its website saying it thinks in terms of decades rather than quarters&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Most of Baillie Gifford&&num;8217&semi;s growth has been organic&comma; rather than acquiring other fund management businesses&period; It profited from the rise of defined benefit pension schemes although that market has obviously now declined somewhat&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Its growing reputation has helped it win a couple of investment trust mandates in recent years&comma; with Schroder UK Growth becoming Baillie Gifford UK Growth in 2018 and European Investment Trust turning into Baillie Gifford European Growth at the end of 2019&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>A big feature of its investing style in recent years has been buying into privately-held businesses&period; This is due to its belief that many of the most promising young companies are joining the stock market much later in their development cycle than they used to&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Baillie Gifford&&num;8217&semi;s private investments have included the likes of Alibaba&comma; Spotify&comma; Airbnb&comma; Lyft&comma; Slack&comma; Dropbox&comma; and SpaceX&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<&excl;-- WP QUADS Content Ad Plugin v&period; 2&period;0&period;98&period;1 -->&NewLine;<div class&equals;"quads-location quads-ad3665 " id&equals;"quads-ad3665" style&equals;"float&colon;left&semi;margin&colon;10px 10px 10px 0&semi;padding&colon;0px 0px 0px 0&semi;" data-lazydelay&equals;"3000">&NewLine;<hr style&equals;"height&colon;5px"> &NewLine;<h3 style&equals;"text-align&colon; center&semi;">Join the Money Makers circle<&sol;h3>&NewLine;<p>I've teamed up with Jonathan Davis&comma; the editor of The Investment Trusts Handbook&comma; at Money Makers where I am now writing regular articles on trusts and funds&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>For more details of what you get by joining as a member <span style&equals;"color&colon; &num;0000ff&semi;"><a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;money-makers&period;co&sol;membership-join&sol;"><strong>please click here<&sol;strong><&sol;a>&period;<&sol;span><&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;<hr style&equals;"height&colon;5px"> &NewLine;<&sol;div>&NewLine;&NewLine;<h2>Key stats for Scottish Mortgage<&sol;h2>&NewLine;<p>Figures are as of 19 May 2020 unless otherwise stated&colon;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<ul>&NewLine;<li><strong>Founded<&sol;strong>&colon; 1909<&sol;li>&NewLine;<li><strong>Joint managers<&sol;strong>&colon; James Anderson &lpar;since 2000&rpar; and Tom Slater &lpar;since 2015&rpar;<&sol;li>&NewLine;<li><strong>Ticker<&sol;strong>&colon; SMT<&sol;li>&NewLine;<li><strong>Benchmark<&sol;strong>&colon; FTSE All-World<&sol;li>&NewLine;<li><strong>10-year net asset value return<&sol;strong>&colon; 493&percnt;<&sol;li>&NewLine;<li><strong>Share price<&sol;strong>&colon; 727p<&sol;li>&NewLine;<li><strong>Indicated spread&colon; <&sol;strong>725p – 729p &lpar;0&period;6&percnt;&rpar;<&sol;li>&NewLine;<li><strong>Exchange market size<&sol;strong>&colon; 3&comma;000<&sol;li>&NewLine;<li><strong>Market cap<&sol;strong>&colon; £10&period;6 billion<&sol;li>&NewLine;<li><strong>Premium to net assets<&sol;strong>&colon; 4&period;1&percnt;<&sol;li>&NewLine;<li><a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;itinvestor&period;co&period;uk&sol;2019&sol;02&sol;kids-the-gloves-are-off&sol;"><strong>Costs<&sol;strong><&sol;a>&colon;  OCF 0&period;4&percnt;&comma; KID 0&period;8&percnt;<&sol;li>&NewLine;<li><strong>Net gearing<&sol;strong>&colon; 9&percnt; as of 30 April 2020<&sol;li>&NewLine;<li><strong>Current dividend and yield<&sol;strong>&colon; 3&period;25p and 0&period;45&percnt;<&sol;li>&NewLine;<li><strong>Results released<&sol;strong>&colon; May &lpar;finals&rpar; and November &lpar;interims&rpar;<&sol;li>&NewLine;<li><strong>Sector<&sol;strong>&colon; Global &lpar;2nd out of 16 over the last 10 years&rpar;<&sol;li>&NewLine;<li><strong>Links&colon;<&sol;strong> <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;bailliegifford&period;com&sol;en&sol;uk&sol;individual-investors&sol;funds&sol;scottish-mortgage-investment-trust&sol;">Website<&sol;a> and <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;theaic&period;co&period;uk&sol;companydata&sol;0P00008ZPP">AIC page<&sol;a><&sol;li>&NewLine;<&sol;ul>&NewLine;<p>Here&&num;8217&semi;s how Scottish Mortgage describes itself&colon;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<blockquote><p><em>Scottish Mortgage is a low-cost equity fund which invests on a global basis&period; Stocks are carefully selected for their strong growth prospects&period; The trust aims to outperform world stock market indices over a five-year rolling period&period;<&sol;em><&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><em>The trust has a long term investment horizon and invests with real patience&period; The portfolio is driven by corporate attraction rather than index construction&period; The managers see themselves as owners of companies rather than renters of stocks&period;<&sol;em><&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><em>The resolutely global approach taken by the trust is reflected in the current investment themes such as the speed of technological advances and how they can disrupt established business practices&comma; and the re-emergence of China as an economic superpower&period;<&sol;em><&sol;p><&sol;blockquote>&NewLine;<h2><a id&equals;"ISA"><&sol;a>An amazing track record<&sol;h2>&NewLine;<p>You almost run out of superlatives when looking at the recent performance of Scottish Mortgage and its fellow Baillie Gifford investment trusts&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Here&&num;8217&semi;s the AIC&&num;8217&semi;s list of the top 20 trusts since ISAs were introduced in 1999&period; It shows how much you would have made if you had put a full ISA allowance into each trust at the start of each tax year&colon;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;itinvestor&period;co&period;uk&sol;wp-content&sol;uploads&sol;2020&sol;05&sol;Top&lowbar;20&lowbar;ISA&lowbar;ITs&period;png"><img class&equals;"alignnone size-large wp-image-3743" src&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;itinvestor&period;co&period;uk&sol;wp-content&sol;uploads&sol;2020&sol;05&sol;Top&lowbar;20&lowbar;ISA&lowbar;ITs-600x499&period;png" alt&equals;"Top performing investment trusts since 1999" width&equals;"600" height&equals;"499" &sol;><&sol;a><br &sol;>&NewLine;Scottish Mortgage tops this list&comma; albeit by a narrow margin&period; Despite not having the best overall percentage gain&comma; the fact that most of its outperformance came in the 2010s propels it to the top of the pile&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>However&comma; its overall return is greater than both Polar Capital Technology and Allianz Technology&comma; who both invest in similar companies to Scottish Mortgage&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The fact that Scottish Mortgage is the largest investment trust makes this achievement even more impressive&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>It had nearly £2 billion in assets back in 1999 whereas many of the other trusts listed above were smaller and therefore much more nimble with heavily concentrated portfolios&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Although no other Baillie Gifford trust appears in this particular list&comma; their recent collective performance has been outstanding&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The seven trusts Baillie Gifford has run for the past decade have returned an average of 113&percnt; and 315&percnt; over the last five and ten years respectively&period; That compares to 47&percnt; and 147&percnt; for all investment trusts&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Its ten trusts with a one-year record have returned an average of 11&percnt; with only three of those losing money over the past twelve months &lpar;two focussed on Japan and one on the UK&rpar;&period; The average investment trust lost 3&percnt; over the same period&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Scottish Mortgage can&&num;8217&semi;t currently claim the best 10-year record in the Global sector as <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;itinvestor&period;co&period;uk&sol;2019&sol;07&sol;whats-a-sensible-premium-for-lindsell-train-investment-trust&sol;">Lindsell Train Investment Trust<&sol;a> has done slightly better&comma; courtesy of its hefty stake in the Lindsell Train fund management basis&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>However&comma; it&&num;8217&semi;s far smaller&comma; with a market cap of £240m&comma; and its wildly oscillating premium to net assets can be rather unnerving&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<h2>My glaring omission<&sol;h2>&NewLine;<p>Although I am pretty happy with <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;itinvestor&period;co&period;uk&sol;portfolio&sol;">my overall portfolio<&sol;a>&comma; one glaring omission for a fan of investment trusts is the lack of anything from the Baillie Gifford stable&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>I did own Pacific Horizon in the late 1990s and although it did nothing for several years after I sold&comma; I think it&&num;8217&semi;s now ten-bagged since we parted ways&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>I&&num;8217&semi;ve considered starting positions in both Edinburgh Worldwide and Scottish Mortgage in recent years but never taken the plunge&period; Like most people&comma; my &&num;8216&semi;I almost bought that&&num;8217&semi; portfolio is chock full of superstars&excl;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>I think the fact that I have sizeable positions in Fundsmith Equity&comma; Lindsell Train Global and&comma; to a lesser extent&comma; Smithson has given me pause&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Although Baillie Gifford&&num;8217&semi;s trusts have limited overlap when it comes to individual holdings&comma; the prices of these funds do seem to be fairly closely correlated over longer periods and I&&num;8217&semi;m a little hesitant to bet so much of the ranch on a similar investment style&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>That said&comma; since the launch of Lindsell Train Global in March 2011&comma; Scottish Mortgage takes pole position with 492&percnt; &lpar;412&percnt; on a net asset basis&rpar;&comma; with Fundsmith on 375&percnt; and Lindsell Train at 306&percnt;&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Fundsmith and Scottish Mortgage were pretty much neck and neck at the end of 2019&comma; but the latter&&num;8217&semi;s stellar rise so far in 2020 has opened up a sizeable gap&period; It&&num;8217&semi;s a good reminder of how quickly such performance stats can change&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<h2>Scottish Mortgage through the years<&sol;h2>&NewLine;<p>There is a book which covers <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;amzn&period;to&sol;2AKKvIx">the first 100 years of Baillie Gifford<&sol;a> which might interest any Scottish Mortgage superfans&period; The earliest set of accounts I could find&comma; however&comma; is from 1986&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Back then&comma; as with many trusts&comma; its headline strategy was somewhat vague&period; It aimed &&num;8220&semi;to achieve maximum growth in both capital values and dividends&&num;8221&semi;&comma; &&num;8220&semi;investing internationally&&num;8221&semi;&comma; and &&num;8220&semi;mainly in strong businesses with good prospects for growth&&num;8221&semi;&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>According to the AIC&comma; it was the best performing large non-specialist investment trust of the previous five years&period; It had assets of £500 million even then&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>In 1986&comma; Baillie Gifford as a whole only managed £1&period;3 billion and had 50 staff&comma; so Scottish Mortgage represented almost 40&percnt; of its business rather than the 5&percnt; it does today&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Back then&comma; Scottish Mortgage&&num;8217&semi;s portfolio was split 40&percnt; UK&comma; 23&percnt; US&comma; 21&percnt; Japan&comma; and 16&percnt; Europe and it consisted of 120 holdings&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The management charge came to a chunky 1&period;4&percnt;&comma; based on 0&period;12&percnt; of assets plus 5&percnt; of that year&&num;8217&semi;s income&period; And the management agreement had a five-year notice period&excl;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The notice period came down to three years and then one year during the 1990s and the income element disappeared in 1999&period; The management charge became 0&period;32&percnt; of net assets&comma; much the same level it is today&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Max Ward&comma; who now runs <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;itinvestor&period;co&period;uk&sol;2018&sol;10&sol;independent-investment-trust-the-fever-subsides&sol;">Independent Investment Trust<&sol;a>&comma; ran Scottish Mortgage from April 1987 to March 2000&period; Net assets grew from £567 million to £1&comma;928 million under his stewardship and the trust returned an average of 15&period;2&percnt; a year from 1990 to 2000&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>That sounds excellent but this was a time of very high equity returns and the trust&&num;8217&semi;s benchmark &lpar;50&percnt; FTSE All-Share and 50&percnt; FTSE World ex-UK&rpar; wasn&&num;8217&semi;t far behind at 14&period;4&percnt; a year&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<h2>New brooms take charge<&sol;h2>&NewLine;<p>James Anderson&comma; the current joint manager&comma; took over in April 2000&period; He turns 61 this year&comma; has been with Baillie Gifford since 1983 and was made a partner in 1987&period; He chaired Baillie Gifford&&num;8217&semi;s International Growth Portfolio Group from its inception in 2003 until July 2019&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Tom Slater&comma; the other joint manager&comma; has been with Baillie Gifford since leaving university in 2000&comma; so is probably in his early 40s&period; He worked as Deputy Manager for Scottish Mortgage from 2010 to 2015&comma; before being made joint manager&comma; and has been a Baillie Gifford partner since 2012&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The Scottish Mortgage of 2000&comma; when Anderson took the reins&comma; looked quite different from today&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>43&percnt; of its assets were invested in UK-listed companies with just 15&percnt; in the US&period; Its largest positions were Vodafone AirTouch &lpar;6&period;7&percnt;&rpar;&comma; BP Amoco &lpar;2&period;6&percnt;&rpar;&comma; Nokia &lpar;2&period;4&percnt;&rpar;&comma; Glaxo Wellcome &lpar;2&period;0&percnt;&rpar;&comma; and Shell T&amp&semi;T &lpar;1&period;9&percnt;&rpar;&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Lloyds&comma; RBOS&comma; and HSBC were also large positions&period; The portfolio also included SAP&comma; Microsoft&comma; Intel&comma; and Sun Microsystems&comma; but there was much more telecom than tech&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The dotcom bust took its toll and net asset value per share fell by just over half from 549p to 268p over the next three years&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>But a change was already underway&period; The number of holdings fell from 163 in 2000 to 101 by 2005&period; This was also the year that the top 30 positions accounted for more than half the portfolio for the first time&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The number of companies fell further still to 75 by 2007 and it has remained at roughly this level since&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The percentage invested in the UK was down to 25&percnt; and the trust&&num;8217&semi;s benchmark was switched from 50&percnt; UK &sol; 50&percnt; ex-UK to 100&percnt; FTSE All-World&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<h2>We&&num;8217&semi;ve been expecting you&comma; Mr Bezos<&sol;h2>&NewLine;<p>2007 was also the year an internet-based retailer called Amazon first appeared in the list of top 30 holdings&comma; representing 1&period;3&percnt; of the trust&&num;8217&semi;s assets&period; eBay was the second-largest position and SAP was in the top 30&comma; too&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>However&comma; Scottish Mortgage was also riding the commodity wave of the time with Vale &lpar;iron ore&rpar;&comma; Gazprom&comma; and Petrobas among its top positions&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The financial crisis of 2008&sol;09 savaged the trust&&num;8217&semi;s returns&comma; as you might expect&period; The year to March 2009&comma; ironically Scottish Mortgage&&num;8217&semi;s centenary year&comma; saw its net asset value per share drop by 41&percnt;&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Anderson said in that year&&num;8217&semi;s annual report that&comma; &&num;8220&semi;the crisis of 2008-09 will come to be seen as the defining event in the decline of the West and rise of China&&num;8221&semi;&period; And he&&num;8217&semi;s since backed up that view by taking significant positions in a number of well-known Chinese companies&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>As of March 2009&comma; UK equities accounted for just 11&percnt; of the portfolio with Amazon the second-largest holding &lpar;4&period;5&percnt;&rpar; and Google the sixth &lpar;3&period;2&percnt;&rpar;&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Although technology stocks still only accounted for around 10&percnt; of Scottish Mortgage&&num;8217&semi;s portfolio&comma; this figure had doubled by 2011 with Baidu and Tencent becoming large positions&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Resource shares and other old economy stocks started to feature less and less in the list of top holdings&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Illumina and Intuitive Surgical were added to the portfolio soon after&period; Alibaba and Facebook appeared in the top 30 in 2013&comma; followed by Tesla in 2014&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<h2>Never sell your winners<&sol;h2>&NewLine;<p>I was a little surprised at just how long Amazon has been a top holding for Scottish Mortgage&period; I think it&&num;8217&semi;s consistently been in the top two or three since 2009 and its position size has been in the range of 7-10&percnt; since 2011&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Based on Amazon&&num;8217&semi;s share price of &dollar;180 in March 2011&comma; Scottish Mortgage&&num;8217&semi;s stake of £167 million consisted of 1&period;5 million shares&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Had Scottish Mortgage kept them all of these shares&comma; at a price of &dollar;1&comma;950 in March 2020&comma; its Amazon stake would have been worth £2&period;4 billion&comma; rather than the £850 million shown in its latest accounts&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>So it appears that Scottish Mortgage has sold two-thirds of its Amazon position over the last decade&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Amazon&&num;8217&semi;s share price has since risen to &dollar;2&comma;450&comma; In theory at least&comma; Scottish Mortgage&&num;8217&semi;s stake could have been worth £3 billion&excl;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<h2>Tesla tantrums<&sol;h2>&NewLine;<p>Tesla&comma; led by the colourful Elon Musk&comma; very much seems to divide investors and seems to put a few people off investing in Scottish Mortgage&comma; too&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Tesla has been in Scottish Mortgage&&num;8217&semi;s top ten holdings for a while now and it became its second-largest holding in 2017&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Although Tesla&&num;8217&semi;s share price slipped back in 2019 on funding concerns&comma; it had regained the second slot by March 2020 with an 8&period;6&percnt; position size&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>By the end of April 2020&comma; though&comma; it had leapfrogged Amazon to become Scottish Mortgage&&num;8217&semi;s largest position at 11&period;3&percnt; of net assets&period; While Amazon&&num;8217&semi;s share price rose 27&percnt; in April&comma; Tesla was up 49&percnt;&excl;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>At a market cap of &dollar;150 billion&comma; I think it&&num;8217&semi;s now valued more than any single company in the FTSE 100&comma; which is quite incredible&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>I&&num;8217&semi;m very much a fence-sitter when it comes to Tesla and Musk&comma; as I can see both sides of the story&period; I suspect Scottish Mortgage might start selling down its position a little&comma; as it has done in the past with Amazon&comma; should Tesla&&num;8217&semi;s share price climb much further&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<h2>The rest of the portfolio<&sol;h2>&NewLine;<p>Here&&num;8217&semi;s Scottish Mortgage&&num;8217&semi;s portfolio as of March 2020&comma; split by how long each position has been held&colon;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;itinvestor&period;co&period;uk&sol;wp-content&sol;uploads&sol;2020&sol;05&sol;SMT&lowbar;portfolio&lowbar;by&lowbar;age&period;png"><img class&equals;"alignnone size-large wp-image-3748" src&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;itinvestor&period;co&period;uk&sol;wp-content&sol;uploads&sol;2020&sol;05&sol;SMT&lowbar;portfolio&lowbar;by&lowbar;age-600x442&period;png" alt&equals;"Scottish Mortgage portfolio" width&equals;"600" height&equals;"442" &sol;><&sol;a><&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The annual report for 2020 had yet to be published when I wrote this&comma; but the September 2019 interim report shows 55&percnt; of the portfolio in the US&comma; 22&percnt; in Europe&comma; 20&percnt; in China&comma; and just 3&percnt; in the UK&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>There were 89 separate holdings&comma; with the top 30 accounting for 80&percnt; of net assets&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>45 holdings were unlisted companies although they only accounted for 20&percnt; of net assets&period; Only five unlisted business accounted for more than 1&percnt; of net assets with Ant Financial the largest at 2&period;3&percnt;&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Overall&comma; portfolio turnover seems to be very low&comma; which I prefer to see&period; The April 2020 factsheet says it was just 8&percnt; over the past 12 months and the following chart shows portfolio turnover has fallen quite considerably the past few years&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;itinvestor&period;co&period;uk&sol;wp-content&sol;uploads&sol;2020&sol;05&sol;SMT&lowbar;portfolio&lowbar;turnover&period;png"><img class&equals;"alignnone size-full wp-image-3752" src&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;itinvestor&period;co&period;uk&sol;wp-content&sol;uploads&sol;2020&sol;05&sol;SMT&lowbar;portfolio&lowbar;turnover&period;png" alt&equals;"Scottish Mortgage portfolio turnover" width&equals;"575" height&equals;"394" &sol;><&sol;a><&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>In the year ended March 2020&comma; outright sales included Baidu &lpar;once its largest position&rpar;&comma; Funding Circle&comma; Grubhub&comma; Home24&comma; Renishaw&comma; SurveyMonkey&comma; and Tableau Software&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<h2>The unlisted question<&sol;h2>&NewLine;<p>Scottish Mortgage is proposing to lift its self-imposed limit on unlisted positions from 25&percnt; to 30&percnt;&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>A fair amount of <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;bailliegifford&period;com&sol;en&sol;uk&sol;individual-investors&sol;literature-library&sol;funds&sol;investment-trusts&sol;scottish-mortgage&sol;annual-reports&sol;scottish-mortgage-preliminary-annual-results-announcement-march-2020&sol;">its latest results statement<&sol;a> was dedicated to the reasoning behind this move&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>For example&comma; this chart shows how the proportion of unlisted investments has increased in recent years&period;  The blue line is the percentage in unlisted companies while the yellow one is unlisted plus those that were unlisted when Scottish Mortgage first invested but are now public companies&colon;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;itinvestor&period;co&period;uk&sol;wp-content&sol;uploads&sol;2020&sol;05&sol;SMT&lowbar;unlisted&period;png"><img class&equals;"alignnone size-large wp-image-3749" src&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;itinvestor&period;co&period;uk&sol;wp-content&sol;uploads&sol;2020&sol;05&sol;SMT&lowbar;unlisted-600x227&period;png" alt&equals;"Scottish Mortgage unlisted companies" width&equals;"600" height&equals;"227" &sol;><&sol;a><&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Alibaba was Scottish Mortgage&&num;8217&semi;s first unlisted investment in 2012 and I think it&&num;8217&semi;s also been its most successful to date&period; Alibaba floated in 2014 and now accounts for 6&percnt; of net assets&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Other unlisted investments that floated&comma; and so make up the difference between the blue and yellow lines in the chart above&comma; include Spotify&comma; Meituan&comma; Anaplan&comma; Vir&comma; and Slack&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>As a holder of a few private equity investment trusts&comma; unlisted positions don&&num;8217&semi;t tend to trouble me too much&period; They&&num;8217&semi;ve clearly added to Scottish Mortgage&&num;8217&semi;s returns in recent years and I&&num;8217&semi;d expect them to creep up to around 25&percnt; in the next few years&comma; with the remaining 5&percnt; left to provide some flexibility&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>They are increasing the overall risk level of the portfolio a little&comma; given they are much harder to sell than quoted companies&period; But Baillie Gifford seems to be taking a measured approach and they are following a similar strategy with other trusts like Edinburgh Worldwide&comma; US Growth&comma; and <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;itinvestor&period;co&period;uk&sol;2019&sol;10&sol;catching-up-schiehallion-tetragon-mobius-and-hipgnosis&sol;">Schiehallion<&sol;a>&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<h2>Charges&comma; gearing&comma; and discounts<&sol;h2>&NewLine;<p>Scottish Mortgage&&num;8217&semi;s charges are among the lowest of all investment trusts&period; Its annual management fee is 0&period;3&percnt; on the first £4 billion of total assets less current liabilities and 0&period;25&percnt; thereafter&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Given Scottish Mortgage&&num;8217&semi;s huge size that still equates to £24 million a year in fees&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The main difference between the ongoing charge figure and the cost figure in the Key Information Document relates to 0&period;4&percnt; for borrowing costs&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Gearing is currently around 10&percnt; of net assets and I think it&&num;8217&semi;s been at roughly that level since 2017&period; In the ten years prior to that&comma; it seemed to average around 15&percnt;&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>For pretty much all of the 2000s and up until 2014&comma; Scottish Mortgage traded at a discount of between 10 and 15&percnt;&period; It moved to a small premium in 2014&sol;5&comma; as folks began to take heed of its strong outperformance&comma; and it&&num;8217&semi;s remained at a premium of a few per cent pretty much ever since&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Since September 2014&comma; shares have been issued to ensure the trust&&num;8217&semi;s premium doesn&&num;8217&semi;t get too racy&period; It looks like the share count has increased some 20&percnt; over the past five years as a result&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<h2>Skin in the game<&sol;h2>&NewLine;<p>As of March 2019&comma; the last annual report currently available&comma; the five directors owned around £2 million of shares&comma; although two-thirds of those were held by just one of them &lpar;Justin Dowley&rpar;&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Three of the five own in excess of £100&comma;000 with Chairman Fiona McBain the smallest shareholder with around 6&comma;000 shares&period; McBain has been a director since 2009 and Chairman since 2017&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>For some reason&comma; it had completely passed me by that the excellent Professor John Kay has been a director of this trust since 2008&period; He is retiring from the Board at the AGM in June and is due to be replaced by Professor Amar Bhidé from Tufts University&comma; who specialises in &&num;8220&semi;economic innovation and entrepreneurship&&num;8221&semi;&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>However&comma; one thing I did find disappointing from reviewing the accounts was the lack of any information regarding the number of shares held by Anderson&comma; Slater&comma; or Baillie Gifford staff&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<h2>A &&num;8216&semi;modest&&num;8217&semi; dividend<&sol;h2>&NewLine;<p>Although Scottish Mortgage ranks as one of the AIC&&num;8217&semi;s Dividend Heroes&comma; with 38 consecutive years of increases&comma; its yield is a mere 0&period;5&percnt;&period; It describes its distribution policy as &&num;8220&semi;modest but progressive&&num;8221&semi;&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Half of its 2020 dividend of 3&period;25p per share had to be taken from capital rather than income&comma; reflecting the low-yielding nature of its underlying investments&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>For what it&&num;8217&semi;s worth&comma; the dividend has increased at an average rate of some 6&percnt; a year over the last two decades&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<h2>Summing up<&sol;h2>&NewLine;<p>Scottish Mortgage&&num;8217&semi;s <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;bailliegifford&period;com&sol;en&sol;uk&sol;individual-investors&sol;funds&sol;scottish-mortgage-investment-trust&sol;literature&sol;">website<&sol;a> and annual reports are well worth a read to get a fuller flavour of its investing style&period; Despite this being one of my longest articles to date&comma; I feel like I&&num;8217&semi;ve only really scratched the surface here&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Tom Slater seems to be interviewed fairly regularly&comma; such as on Citywire&&num;8217&semi;s new <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;citywire&period;co&period;uk&sol;investment-trust-insider&sol;news&sol;scottish-mortgage-covid-19-is-no-black-swan-and-nor-is-our-stunning-performance&sol;a1357632">Fund Fanatic podcast<&sol;a> and <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;brewin&period;co&period;uk&sol;insights&sol;tesla-shopify-and-chewy-with-baillie-gifford">twice so far this year<&sol;a> at <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;brewin&period;co&period;uk&sol;insights&sol;tesla-revisited">Brewin Dolphin<&sol;a>&period; And the AIC <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;youtube&period;com&sol;watch&quest;v&equals;OAqFv87ZUyQ&amp&semi;t&equals;1s">published this internal interview<&sol;a> earlier this week&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Given his higher profile&comma; I would expect Slater to take over from Anderson sometime in the next few years&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>It was recently announced that Anderson was stepping back from Baillie Gifford&&num;8217&semi;s Long Term Global Growth team to &&num;8220&semi;focus on research&comma; the task he enjoys the most”&period; However&comma; it was confirmed that he will continue to co-manage Scottish Mortgage and its International Concentrated Growth Strategy and solely manage the Vanguard International Growth fund&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>When Anderson does depart&comma; I&&num;8217&semi;d expect Scottish Mortgage to take such a change in its stride&comma; given the infrastructure and support provided by the wider Baillie Gifford operation&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Under Anderson&&num;8217&semi;s watch&comma; from March 2000 to March 2020&comma; Scottish Mortgage returned 11&percnt; a year&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>While that&&num;8217&semi;s actually less than Max Ward achieved in the 1990s&comma; it splits down into 4&period;3&percnt; a year for his first ten years &lpar;with those two major bear markets&rpar; and 18&period;2&percnt; a year for his second decade&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The trust&&num;8217&semi;s benchmark returned 3&percnt; a year in the 2000s and 8&period;6&percnt; in the 2010s&comma; so Scottish Mortgage maintained a slender lead during Anderson&&num;8217&semi;s first decade before racing ahead in the second&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>And such has been the strength of Scottish Mortgage&&num;8217&semi;s performance over the last seven weeks&comma; its overall average has been dragged up to 12&period;3&percnt; a year&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Scottish Mortgage looks to be in a great overall position&comma; even after its strong gains so far this year&period; But I would expect a decade of lower returns &lpar;and less strong outperformance&rpar; over the next decade compared to the 2010s&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine; &NewLine;&nbsp&semi;&NewLine;<hr style&equals;"height&colon;3px">&NewLine;<h3>Disclaimer<&sol;h3>&NewLine;<p>Please note that I may own some of the investments mentioned above -- you can see my current holdings on <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;itinvestor&period;co&period;uk&sol;portfolio&sol;">my portfolio page<&sol;a>&period; <&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Nothing on this website should be regarded as a buy or sell recommendation as I'm just a random person writing a blog in his spare time and I am not authorised to give financial advice&period; Always do your own research and seek financial advice if necessary&excl;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<hr style&equals;""height&colon;3px"">&NewLine;<h3>Subscribe to IT Investor<&sol;h3>&NewLine;<p>Get an email alert every time I publish a new article&period; Your email address won't be used for anything else&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><div class&equals;"tnp tnp-subscription ">&NewLine;<form method&equals;"post" action&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;itinvestor&period;co&period;uk&sol;wp-admin&sol;admin-ajax&period;php&quest;action&equals;tnp&amp&semi;na&equals;s">&NewLine;<input type&equals;"hidden" name&equals;"nlang" value&equals;"">&NewLine;<div class&equals;"tnp-field tnp-field-email"><label for&equals;"tnp-1">Enter your email address&period;&period;&period;<&sol;label>&NewLine;<input class&equals;"tnp-email" type&equals;"email" name&equals;"ne" id&equals;"tnp-1" value&equals;"" placeholder&equals;"" required><&sol;div>&NewLine;<div class&equals;"tnp-field tnp-field-button" style&equals;"text-align&colon; left"><input class&equals;"tnp-submit" type&equals;"submit" value&equals;"Click here to subscribe" style&equals;"">&NewLine;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<&sol;form>&NewLine;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<hr style&equals;""height&colon;3px"">&NewLine;&NewLine;<&sol;p>&NewLine;

View Comments

  • Nice write-up as ever IT.

    I have held this trust in my portfolio for a few years and made a tidy return on my initial investment. However, last year I noted it had added Musk's SpaceX to its holdings and therefore decided it was no longer for me.

    I guess we all have a line somewhere in the sand that cannot be crossed!

    • Thanks M!

      And thanks DIY! SpaceX seems to be just 0.6% of the portfolio so it's a pretty small constituent. But I would agree that we all have to decide where our own particular lines should go!

  • Thanks a great review. I have been a lucky shareholder for a number of years and plan to continue.

  • Great article and a well run fund, its just a little late in the cycle for my tastes.

  • Would love to hear of people's idea of the next Scottish mortgage trust for the next decade coming from ?

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