Thanks Andrew!

I guess the slump in oil prices adds another yet another complication to the forecasting mix, even though there is a commitment to move away from fossil fuels.

This is the chart I’ll probably keep one eye on, but I’m wary of chasing my tail too much on this!

Electricity price curves – bit different to recent reports, when nearly all indicated that the ‘independent consultants’ used were predicating rates increasing. The top couple basically saying nothing (how much did they get paid for this) whilst the grey curve – appears even more pessimistic than me. It would be great if some of the key assumptions had been listed. There is an article here on price cannibalization (over in Spain) here:

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/spain-s-red-hot-renewables-market-shows-no-signs-of-cooling-off-57337506

which is worth a read.

Guess it is a balance between more renewable power in the short/medium term keeping a lid of £/MWh before a large increase in demand (EVs, hydrogen production) later on (2030s?) would lead to higher prices.

Sympathise with the CEO about predicting prices, though: with UK gas price directionless at the moment, colder temperatures and drop in wind output combined to usher Baselaod power to £43.87/MWh on Wednesday (04/03/2020); day before, it out turned at £34.81/MWh
(Interesting day, Wednesday – cashout seen at 2,242/MWh (!):
https://www.current-news.co.uk/news/electricity-system-price-rockets-to-2-242-mwh-as-questions-raised-over-calculation-methods )

BSUoS – we touched on this disappearing for embedded generators (EBs) from April 2021 (estimate of £2.50/MWh, it is calc per hh) but my understanding is that while Ofgem considered charging EBs (and so a £5.00/MWh swing) this is not to be implemented. Must be very different for (renewable) developers to develop projects with concerns over what benefits/charges Ofgem will hand out following future consultations.

As you say, it will be interesting to see if BSIF perhaps divert some monies away from dividends and into growth & acquisitions and how this will be perceived by shareholders. Still with interest rates so low and likely to stay low for some time, then the high premia these trusts attract is likely to remain for the time being.

Thanks again for your review.

I think I saw the headline (busy day yesterday!) but hadn’t read the story yet. Great news.

That piece you did on green hydrogen earlier this year was very interesting. Here’s a link for those folks who missed it: http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2020/01/green-hydrogen-could-transform-world.html

I expect you saw the news from the government yesterday that it will be unblocking onshore wind and solar to improve our chances of achieving net zero emissions by 2050. This should be a big boost for the likes of Bluefield and should counter some of the negatives.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51708817

On storage, I am hoping they will be looking at green hydrogen to link up with their solar farms and extract more value from any excess generation. Be interesting to see what they are looking into.